[NPMUG] Thoughts on Apple's last Macworld Expo keynote

[Dave Sevick]

Apple user group folks,

I planned to write a little blurb today on why the decision to not  
attend MacWorld anymore makes a lot of sense .... and tonight I find  
this article on the The Unofficial Apple Weblog  ( TUAW ) stating my  
thoughts almost to the letter.

One observation I really wanted to make .... and it is mentioned below  
by Dave Caolo ... is that every year during Christmas season I see  
clients hold off on purchases as they "wait for MacWorld  
announcements...."

Fair enough.

But then these newly announced products don't ship until later that  
year ... almost NEVER right away.   So, I welcome the last few years  
of year-round Apple product announcements. Rumors are less and  
purchases are more common.

Last thought is that we are so very lucky that many attended the  
"last" Steve Job's Keynote at MacWorld and were able to share some of  
the excitement with you all during the NPMUG meeting in Jan 2008 over  
iChat from Moscone Center in San Francisco  to MacOutfiters in  
Cranberry Twp .   Pittsburgh's Mark Dalrymple ( developer at Google  
now ) was a special treat to see at the expo.

  Who would have thought that was the  final chapter in a very very  
cool part of Apple history.

==================

Here is the very timely and ( I feel ) accurate   ... Thoughts on  
Apple's last Macworld Expo keynote   by Dave Caolo on Dec 17th 2008 at  
9:00AM

Thoughts on Apple's last Macworld Expo keynote

Filed under: Macworld, Analysis / Opinion, Steve Jobs

Late yesterday, Apple surprised pundits, fans and presumably IDG by  
announcing that Macworld Expo 2009 would be their last as an official  
exhibitor. Along with that news came the announcement that Phil  
Schiller will deliver the keynote address in place of Steve Jobs.  
People will speculate about the reasons for Apple's move for some  
time. Here are my thoughts.

There must be a financial component. Sure, Apple announced $25 billion  
in cash reserves and no debt at the end of Q4 in October, but it's  
very expensive to attend these events, even for Apple. Consider the  
extent of Apple's presence at Macworld Expo, between machines, people,  
displays, etc. Even software giant Adobe has dropped out.

Of course, it goes beyond the cost of the show. Nearly every year,  
Apple's stock dips after the keynote presentation when rumored  
products or services aren't introduced. It's a silly, unfortunate and  
routine drop... which brings me to point number two.

The rumors themselves. The current iPod nano model was all but  
revealed prematurely when photos of a case produced by a 3rd party  
manufacturer appeared online. When Steve Jobs mentioned it at the  
official press event a few days later, some attendees laughed. Steve  
responded by saying, "It's not funny" in a stern tone of voice. He was  
clearly pissed.

That wasn't the first time Apple had been scooped by the media. In  
2002, the Canadian edition of Time Magazine leaked a cover photo of  
Steve and Jon Ive with the G4 iMac just prior to its introduction at  
Macworld Expo. You'll also remember that Apple aggressively pursued  
rumor site Thinksecret last year, and it's currently offline. Not only  
do rumors hurt the company financially, they take some of the  
excitement out of product updates, and in turn, the media's  
enthusiasm. When the media basically knows what's coming, their  
interest wanes just enough. Apple wants more control.

Control over product schedules outside the constraints of Expo  
keynotes. Once Apple steps away from the tick-tock of January  
showcases, it will be able to stage a press event and introduce a  
product or service when it's actually ready, not when a certain  
calendar date arrives.

Finally, I've always found the timing to be odd. The first week of  
January is right after all the major winter holidays. People are  
tapped out financially and enjoying the loot they picked up the in  
weeks before from family and friends. Asking them to spend another  
grand on a computer just then isn't ideal. Alternatively, Apple has  
consistently released iPod updates in September, just as kids are  
going back to school.

The inevitable question is one of Steve's health, but I think John  
Gruber got this one right. If Steve was ill, they'd send in a proxy  
like Phil but keep the rest of the game intact. The fact that they've  
abandoned the whole thing says to me that it's a political and  
financial move more than anything else.

Time Magazine asks the health question right away in their reaction  
article, quoting an Apple spokesperson as saying, "Phil is giving the  
keynote because this is Apple's last year in the show, and it doesn't  
make sense for us to make a major investment in a trade show we will  
no longer be attending." Even if Steve is as healthy as a horse but  
still looks thin, his appearance could have an affect on the company's  
stock. I don't think I've ever seen a company whose financial well  
being is so closely tied to the health of its CEO.

For now, at least, IDG plans to put on Macworld Expo 2010, with or  
without Apple. I say more power to them, but as a person who attended  
two Macworld Expos in Boston without Apple, my faith is waning.

It is a bit sad that Steve won't wrap up the final Macworld Expo; we  
can hope that he'll make a special appearance as Phil Schiller's One  
More Thing.
TUAWThoughts on Apple's last Macworld Expo keynote originally appeared  
on The Unofficial Apple Weblog (TUAW) on Wed, 17 Dec 2008 09:00:00  
EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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